Prediction of the M8.7 Megathrust Earthquake, BMKG Reveals 10 Tsunamis in the Sunda Strait

3 min readJan 22, 2022

The Bandung Technical Institute (ITB) and the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) have warned about the potential for a megathrust earthquake with a magnitude of 8.7 in the Sunda Strait. This prediction is also widely associated with the 2018 tsunami in Banten and the M6.6 earthquake in Pandeglang, Banten, on January 14, 2022 yesterday.

In response, the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) confirmed that the two disasters were not related to the megathrust earthquake in the Sunda Strait.

The BMKG Earthquake and Tsunami Mitigation Coordinator, Daryono explained that the January 16 earthquake yesterday did not occur in the contact area, because the megathrust or seduction occurred in the contact area.

Daryono explained that it had been almost 300 years since there had been a major earthquake in the Sunda Strait. In fact, if you look at the M7.8 earthquake and tsunami in Pangandaran in 2006 and Bengkulu’s M8.5 earthquake and tsunami in 2007, the source of the megathrust zones for the two events is the same.

“That is, there is still a process of accumulation of mega-voltage, the accumulation of energy that has not yet been released. That’s what we’re worried about, what we call the seismic gap, the earthquake void is considered because of the potential for a large earthquake zone,” Daryono explained in the online MNC Trijaya FM Polemic entitled ‘Beware of Megathrust Earthquakes and Hitrometrological Disasters’ online, Saturday (22/1/2022).

Then, he continued, the 2018 earthquake and tsunami in Banten also had absolutely nothing to do with megathrust, because the disaster was caused by a plank collapse, in which the mountain body collapses so that the collapsed mountain material causes a tsunami.

For the record, Daryono revealed that in the Sunda Strait itself there have been 10 tsunamis, both caused by earthquakes and by the eruption of Mount Krakatau. For those caused by earthquakes that occurred in 1722, 1852, and 1958. Then due to the eruption of Krakatoa 3 times, including the most popular in 1803.

“Due to the eruption of Krakatoa in 416, there is a book of kings called the Book of Kings Purwa, if I’m not mistaken. 1803 was a popular catastrophic eruption, in addition to spilled material that came into contact with sea water, catastrophic eruptions such as firecrackers, and 1928,” he added.

In addition, Daryono added, due to the landslides of Mount Krakatoa occurred 4 times, namely 1851, 1883, 1889, and last 2018 yesterday it was 10 times. He acknowledged that from some of these incidents there was a multihazard potential, but the public should not be pessimistic because the most important thing was to map out mitigation to ensure the safety of the community.

“There is a potential for multihazards, we must not be pessimistic about what is happening, we need to map out mitigation that can ultimately guarantee the safety of the community, we will do it,” concluded Daryono.